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much depth there, but thought that we could ground ourselves just in a little bit of the landscape of what mobility tech is looking like right now, on the venture side, in terms of deal counts and values. So there's been a more, you know, a more than 70% decrease from the height of the market, from 2021 to 2023 in terms of deal value, and 50% in deal count. And for 2024 we're expecting this to be on par with 2023 this is not abnormal compared to other areas of the overall market. It's, you know, largely in line. And so we've just generally seen a downwards trend. But happy to go back to some of that data, because I think it's surprising for folks when they first look at it. What really drives this, though is kind of value chain of money in the space, which I think is important to talk about. So, you know, nature of exits, how people are bringing what's called liquidity back into the market and into the hands of private investors called limited partners. So allocate to funds. So allocate to startups. It's essentially the way that fresh capital gets back in the market. And so we've seen exit values decreased 85 to 90% from 2022, to 2023, from 2021 peak. And after these mega exits of 2021 we've with exit values of over a billion dollars, right 1.1 so you can see here like 2024 is seeing that average value of below 50 million. And so we've really seen a pretty dramatic shift in you know, how companies are not only getting funded, but how they're getting valued on these exits, and what that looks like. And so just kind of continue to build this picture of what this means for founders. You know, we've seen overall, you know, not only you know our deal counts going down, size of deals going down, but also time between rounds going up 40 to 50% and so this means that founders are under pretty significant pressure to extend runways right as they think about how to build these sustainable companies that are built for the long run but have pretty significant challenges in the short term these last couple years. And so a lot of that you know results in, how do you extend runway? What does that look like one of the results of that pressure is an increase what's called debt to equity ratio in early stage companies. It's up about 40% since 2019 some of this is venture debt, which we could talk about later, is a pretty tough form of capital, and so I wanted to spend time talking about other options for founders when they think about how to align sources and uses of capital on the cap table to build companies not get diluted, not have onerous structures that need to be paid out, and next equity round and things like that. And so just starting to again, kind of ground ourselves in what that means. You know, I think a bright spot at the moment is that it's actually good for founders to understand different capital sources earlier on, bird is oftentimes talked about within the mobility space. They were purchasing scooters and shipping them by plane, the most expensive means possible, using equity dollars, which is one of the worst uses of capital that you can imagine, given the expected rate of returns that you can see here. And so if you were to kind of redesign how to think about a product like that and build it in a way that you know each type of investor is getting the return that they expect, what would that look like? So I've included here just a kind of high level sample of what a sources and uses capital framework for founders looks like. This will be different for every company. But in this example, I assumed a mobility started with physical assets and project needs. And outside of equity, all other forms of capital are non dilutive, and so just kind of walking through each of these areas, equity is dilutive, right? So that means that it reduces the founders ownership stake in the company. Equity investors are typically like myself, are typically making a bad forward looking right on the overall growth and trajectory of the company. Cost of capital is high because the risk profile of that is high, and so you tend to use a high cost of capital for things that you can't get other forms of capital for. So this concludes, you know, R and D of the product, sales and marketing and other things like that going down the list, debt capital, non dilutive, there's a huge range here, and we'll go through a table a little bit later on of what some of those forms are. But typically you need to have a commercially ready product in order to have debt providers, you know, excited and interested to underwrite, whether it be an asset or a project. And we'll, again, we'll go into more depth, and then grants, non dilutive, least expensive, because they're free, getting free dollars. I was always great. And these we use to fund early R and D, there's a range of both federal, state, local, kind of rate payer incentives and others, demonstration deployments, which can really be used to help set you up to raise debt later on, LMI, like low moderate income deployments and others. And of course, last line is revenue, right, which is what everyone is looking to start growing so they could become less and less reliant on equity as a kind of capital source. And so just with that in mind, you know, how does this translate to kind of a healthy journey for, say, a new hardware product within the mobility space that has, you know, IP that they've been developing and significant R and D. So this is a company that isn't just looking to deploy existing kind of hardware, but needs to develop it themselves. And so leaving aside revenue from this equation, just looking at the other forms of capital, typically, kind of a healthy journey starts with raising R and D grants, right? So this might come in the form of non dilutive accelerators and incubators, as you're starting to kind of build out what that case looks like, then you might get a first round of pre seed capital and some additional grants start to gain in terms of equity, maybe some deployment grants, and then bring on debt. What you once you've proven out some of those deployments, and typically, what debt providers are looking for with those early deployments is, what does the actual cost look like? How does the underwriting look? Kind of longevity of assets and a whole range of other factors, and then you gradually switch to more and more debt as the drivers of your hardware and project financing, and really only start to use equity for sales and marketing and continue to reduce that right as you continue to grow revenue. So this just kind of helps, kind of maybe keep in mind what what should be doing. One of the reasons why we focus on this a lot at street life is we've seen founders what we call force fed equity, which we think is really damaging to kind of dilution of the ownership stake of a company, and also it means that you're not building the fact base to raise debt later on, which means that inherently, don't have a sustainable business, right? Because you're gonna need more and more very expensive equity in order to grow this company. Equity investors aren't going to see the type of return profile that they need to get from the business, and so as a result, many equity only focused investors can get scared off of hardware versus we think that like these conversations should be very open. Investors should be helping counsel, coach and advise founders and how to think about these different tools at their disposal. And so, you know, founders, like, especially the early stage, experience a lot of pain points in securing these forms of non dilutive capital. So we won't have time to go into a ton of tech, but just wanted to go go over what that looks like in a few kind of solution set. So kind of, you know, first set of this is like, unclear option set, like, what are my options? Who are the players? How do I grow awareness of this? Because you're not going to be going to a bank of America or Goldman Sachs or others for those first rounds of that raising second is an unclear process. So it's very different than raising equity, right? Equity investors are making a bet on future growth of the company. They are looking at downside, but the way that their diligence and underwriting is quite different. Data room, set of materials, are quite different. And then third, there aren't a ton of great case studies out there for founders, and so you typically need to source conversations with other founders to understand the basics, pros, cons. Watch outs, how to think about structuring this? Oops, skip one.
we'll go quickly through this, but just in terms of making the options that clear, this is something we do a lot at street life. We've collaborated with SSB, other climate, VCs, NYC to EDC and others to create a range of resources for early stage founders, including some of these non dilutive capital that are specifically suited to founders in that seed series, A, early B, before they're qualifying for larger debt sources. And so there's a range of both established groups like green banks, private credit firms. Ggrf is a main form of capital coming into market right now that is really exciting for this. And generally think that these kinds of resources should be public and available to founders, rather than kept behind like VC walled gardens has like source of value. Think that investors should be putting out this information a lot more and a lot regularly. So we can come back to that if it's interesting for the group. And then next piece here is that, you know, underneath this, not all debt is created equal. And so again, you know, thinking about those broad ranges that I showed earlier, you really do need to be selecting the right tool for the job. And there's, you know, a couple areas of, I won't cover each one here, but just quickly to go through a couple, maybe four of them. You have project finance, which is really suited for kind of large scale projects that are going out and deploying pretty capital intensive projects. So this might be need to build new manufacturing plants for a particular type of asset. It might include needing to trench right if you're an EV company and others. There's equipment financing. This is underwriting assets. So that could be the Chargers themselves, and that EV company, example, you know, if you're talking about micro mobility, is alloc will grow into that bike or scooter. It could be the truck or the asset itself. And so debt providers are really going to be digging into the useful life of that asset, the type of contract, and what that looks like. And then receivable financing, which, you know many This can sometimes be difficult within a more mobility hardware or other market, because providers here oftentimes looking for 50% margins, if they're standalone, versus suppliers can be a great source of that. Again, lots, lots underneath each of these points, but trying to go through quickly to give a quick overview. And then second here is just clarifying the process. You know, can include lots of different links and others to go through the MIT mobility group in general. But you know, in general, the, as I mentioned earlier, the process here is quite different. So you need a different data room. You need a different set of documents and give credit create an SBB structure. So this is not only kind of legal, but pretty heavy lift on the financial side. And one group to call out that I think does a particularly good job here is spring Lane capital. They have a developer you program for anyone here who's on the call, who's developing a hardware product, like please send me a LinkedIn connection, or others, I'm happy to send you more resources and a note, or when their next program occurs, because it's a great boot camp for founders on that side and raising debt capital, and then on the grant side, I think you know, because of these prolonged periods of time between funding grounds that founders are experiencing right now, It's that, how can you get grant capital earlier, knowing that federal, state, even local grants can take a long time to actually hit the books. And so there's a number of different providers who will work on that and during planet is one of them. But there's also folks like streamline climate that can help you apply to and understand some of those grant resources very early on. And then, you know, just lastly, in terms of highly encourageable case studies, this is something that we're planning to do as a partnership between street life and the MIT mobility group next year, and doing three different workshops, one on early stage deployment grants to de risk debt capital. Again, this is a really essential part of qualifying for debt capital, getting debt providers to understand the underlying cost of the business and ways to do that. There's a number of founders who have done great jobs. A lot of great payers out there are actually great at supporting these kinds of projects. Second is equipment financing. There's countless examples of founders who have been incredibly successful and moved off equity at a Series A or Series B, even so, rather than valorizing equity, how do we think again about moving on to best forms of capital? And then the last is project financing, which has both pre construction side and construction side for folks who are working through this. So that's kind of quick, tour through. Happy to get into more details later on, the discussion. Too great.
under investing, or at least not investing, I would say in microbial The answer is no, we're generally just not doing this. If you look at, for example, the inflation Reduction Act, it's incredibly easy to isolate for how much money could be spent on the federal tax credit. On the EV side, it's incredibly hard to find pots of grant money or whatever else within the inflation Reduction Act regal that can be definitely applied towards micro ability. But in that case, the one in the neighborhood access equity grants, it's micro ability included. But there's other forms of sort of uses that that those dollars can be applied for, and the same trends holds true on the private investment side, where I focused on venture capital. But you can just see that obviously, even with the sort of decline in funding that Laura talked about at the macro level, there's just never been as much big picture attention towards micro ability, as there has been towards, say, electric vehicles, and I did then spend some time really talking to a lot of founders and investors to validate whether, you know, from a quantitative perspective, they really thought About the fundability of this category, for those for micro ability. And what was intriguing, I think, was that, you know, any founder of a startup will tell you fundraising is hard. I don't think, though, I was expecting that 94% of them would say, yeah, it's just harder to raise for micro ability than it is for other mobility sub sectors. And I think their sort of concerns were validated when I did a survey of folks in the venture capital side who invested in mobility, who at least half of them were just like, Yeah, I just don't think micro mobility is basically worth investing in from a venture capital perspective. And then I really spent the rest of the research looking through, okay, if both the federal government and venture capitalists are not particularly interested in microability. What would need to be true in terms of market transformation forces to make this something that both people in federal policy making in DC could get excited about, and subsequently, potentially investors on the venture capital side and look through a couple of different levers on the consumer market structure side, you know, if consumers just put their own accord demonstrated a higher willingness to pay or purchasing, to what degree would that change attention and minds in DC and in the venture community, you've had More things that were driven by policy makers like infrastructure level support, protected bike lanes, bike parking, but also producer level support, and then real federal at either the producer or consumer level, whether those be consumer focused, you know, buy downs at the cost for a consumer to get A new bike, or even producer level manufacturing subsidies. Surveyed founders about this, and also surveyed VCs, which is in the written report. And I think my overall conclusion was, nobody sees a silver bullet, except for maybe founders being really excited for, obviously, the continued investment in state and local infrastructure, in protected bike lanes, whatever else. But notably across both groups, there was an acknowledgement that a lot of what we have tried thus far has failed to, like really make it a breakthrough market in terms of people's attention, and that it was time to think about newer approaches, like a federal producer subsidy or something like that, that would really help catalyze market growth. And so, you know, the outcome of those conversations was, you know, on the consumer market structure side, we haven't yet seen these sort of just organic breakthroughs of changes in consumers behavior, where consumers dramatically change their behavior that makes the market more investable state and city policy, what I would say is, we've already got a lot of this. We've got 100 e bike incentive programs in North America by local and state governments, and, you know, we still have almost no federal policy. And so I would argue that the big unlock we can hope for is, you know, sort of some level of maintain and grow in that middle column of state and city policy, and then really leaning into what would it take to get changes to the federal policy level? And subsequently spent a lot of time talking to various members of Congress about what, you know, what is really feasible, right? Politics and policy is the art of the possible. I think there's an acknowledgement, both before and after the election, that a lot of the things that have been near and dear to people's hearts as like sort of moonshots on federal policy are probably still moonshots at best under a change in administration. But so, you know, consumer tax credit, for example, I think for purchase on E bikes, people have quite little, little little faith in being part of the next administration. But there are some windows of opportunity for those of us who say, hey, you know, the election really changed. So the calculus in DC, how do we still push for this in a changed administration? But I would argue there's, there's three ways where, if we want to be opportunistic and take advantage of what is likely less enthusiasm in Congress for micro ability, what do we do? One is the 2017 tax cuts must be reauthorized or allowed to lapse. That means that there's an opportunity to refine what the tax cuts can be applied for. It's worth pushing for either production some sort of production level program, or consumer tax credit for purchase of E bikes. Second, and probably even more important, is the Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act. We have a way of thinking about government spending at the federal level that's either highways or public transportation, and never the two shall meet. And there's sort of a giant missing middle that we need to have ingrained in the way we think about federal spending programs that Angie is that it's not just a binary choice between highways and public transportation, but investment in a whole stream of mobility solutions. And then last and least, you know, there is obviously, for better, for worse, bipartisan interest in tariffs wage to particularly anything that touches the battery economy, and that is an opportunity for metal for worse, to think about what is, what does nearshoring e bike production need, in terms of the potential interest in getting Congress and support and then subsequently, potentially investment from the private sector. Thank you so much, and I'm looking forward to the discussion. Wonderful.
that didn't bark, if you will. So I want to share that with you quickly. These are sort of like the highlights, next slide, please. So the number one metric, which I don't like, surprise you if you follow EVs, was range. Every car maker had it front and center, usually like without having to scroll in the slightest if you wanted to see what the range was for the vehicle. And that makes sense, like the range anxiety constantly comes up when you talk to consumers who do surveys about consumer responses for why they may or may not be considering buying an EV. So it's understandable why this is the dominant metric. However, it raises real questions. For one thing, Americans vastly overestimate how much they drive and how much range really matters. 19 of every 20 trips in the US is 20 miles or less, and assuming 30 miles or less, let me get that right, and the likelihood that you're actually going to hit 2050, or 300 miles in a given journey, it just happens a lot less frequently than the risk that in emphasizing range, you're going to end up reinforcing a misperception among a large swath of the population. But there's other issues too, one of which is the range is not ironclad. People think, oh, yeah, I get 283, miles of range with my vehicle. No, you don't, as the many engineers on the call are going to know range is going to be determined by by but also by driving behavior, by the weather, by topography, a lot of variables at play, and you have a lot of of unfortunate surprises among EV owners that can undermine confidence in electric vehicles, writ large. And then there's another problem, which is, if we're going to be focusing on ranges like this becomes like the guiding sort of metric for the future of the EV market. Well, the way that you have longer ranges, you install bigger batteries, by and large. And that's a problem, because big batteries is a is relative waste of resources. It's also a safety risk, because heavier cars, bigger cars, are going to exert more more force in a crash, particularly with smaller cars, and that could worsen what we already have is a road safety crisis in the US. So rather than get into an arms race on range, it'd be a lot better if we could focus on building out a charger network, which is another issue I'm not going to get into, but that feels like that's a much healthier way for the EV market to develop. Next slide, please. The second most popular metric was acceleration. And I showed a whole article about acceleration, and also in past company a few months ago that was inspired by research I was doing, putting the briefing for MIT together, and the long and the short of it is, and this is a technical term, zero to 60 times are just dumb. They are not helpful at this point, because every EV can go more than quick enough for any driving on a public road. By and large, you now have SUVs that can hit 60 in under 464, seconds, which is not or useful, practical for most drivers. So the apple the comparison of zero to 60 times is just not a particularly useful one for drivers or for car owners. And I worry that this, based on a lot of conversations I've had with with folks who follow the market closely too, that there is a potential risk that if, if Auto, excuse me, if consumers are looking at range and looking at acceleration as they're choosing which EV to buy, whether, whether to buy an EV. It's not a great recipe for consumer satisfaction because the range is not ironclad. It's not potentially as important as people think, and acceleration really isn't as important as people think. Next slide, please. Then the third most popular metric, I found, is charging time. This one is super important, and it would be great to have a competition among car makers over time, but who can have the
most efficient charging systems? The problem is that automakers are not making it easy to do apples to apples comparisons and the market materials that I reviewed, I saw some automakers talking about the amount of range you get from 15 minutes of charging. Others talk about amount of range from 20 minutes. Others talk about the time, the mileage you can get in range from, excuse me, the amount of time it takes to go to, sorry, the matter the amount of time it takes to get from going 10% of of charge to 80% so it's really difficult to do an apples to apples comparison here. And you can't have a robust market in terms of, like, compelling automakers to compete in efficiency, excuse me, in terms of charging time. If it's not easy to do that kind of comparison, I'm not sure it is right now, based on what I've seen Next slide, please. And then there's a dog that didn't bark. Um, I every expert on EVs I spoke with, whether on the public sector side or in academia, and the ones who are honest and are off the record, I should say in in private sector too, they all said that efficiency is absolutely essential for having a robust future EV market. We need to to have EVs that are going to make maximum value of the energy they consume. And this, by the way, would also counteract car blood, which is an ongoing problem in the US that I've done a lot of work with, and the federal government, to its credit, puts MPGe, which is an efficiency metric, front and center on the Monroney sticker, which is depicted here. But I didn't find MPGe anywhere on any of the websites that I reviewed, and I only found one reference to vehicle efficiency, and that was with the BMW. I for