Hello. I'm Rob Hirschfeld, CEO co founder of RackN and your host for the cloud 2030 podcast. In this episode, we step into a very interesting topic, very forward looking, about nuclear power and a potential renaissance in nuclear power, driven by the voracious power demands for data centers and the potential of nuclear power becoming accepted and local and a economic boon for communities. And if you're scratching your head thinking, No way, maybe this conversation will change your mind, enjoy it.
You know, my my data from from Vail and other places, and his data from his trips overseas is that nuclear power, small scale, nuclear power, is is about to have a renaissance. Yeah, everybody's nodding. I such a simple right. But if, if, if, if Mexico can say, oh, you know what, we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna regulate in such a way that allows people to drop in these new generation nuclear plants they could be running, you know, running data centers like mad, because the power grids Are
desalinate and desalination. Oh, shoot, yeah.
Which I think will will come up even more predominantly in the next two to three years, as sea levels change and people relocate. You know, they're they're already time. They're already talking about, um, what is it? There's a specific word for it. It's climate refugees and climate migration, or migration climate change, right? So I know you know, we have two in Toronto that were outside of the city at one time and now are in the middle of suburbs, not, not a place I would want to live. Yeah, yeah.
Well, they're in. That's exactly the reason why it isn't as simple a simple, a solution, no, and that is sure, as long as I'm far enough away from it that I don't have to worry, which is why, to your point, Rob the new designs, which, for example, do not require water for cooling, right? The new designs that by their very, you know, setup don't have the threat of a China Syndrome style meltdown that just, you know, the feedback goes through the floor, and that, you know, if, in fact, there's a failure, it's a it's A failure that basically stops the process, does not endanger it's, it's a, it's kind of like the the dead man switch, you know, if,
if, if
it's not operating correctly, it can't operate. And in not operating, it's not endangering the the locals, there's a really interesting new reactor that's being built. I want to say it's a it's either near Chicago or it's somewhere. It's either Chicago, Illinois, or it's either or Michigan. But some new, new approaches, new technologies, where they actually take the fuel and it's about they're like pebble. They call them pebbles, and they coat them with a kind of a shell that is very heat resistant. And so this is the, this is the source of heat where, you know, and you don't need water to cool them. You. So this is, this is, this is the kind of stuff that we're we should be absolutely generation, yeah, now the the next, the next two turns of the crank for nuclear, modest, mid sized, small nuclear power generation is really going to be vital Absolutely. So
I have a so, I mean, we had a topic planned for today, but you know me, I'm always happy to shift around. I I'm happy to to explore this disruption. Does this, you know, sort of think through what could, what could happen with nuclear we can. I have it right now, pushed back until September 5, and we'll bring it back up, but, but I'm happy if y'all would rather the plan. Topic is the software, software defined devices change how we think about the edge, PLC, switches, cameras, things like that. Just a fascinating topic I know we want to talk about, but I'm happy to happy to pivot either way.
Did we? Did we also schedule the the one that we were supposed to have? Yeah,
I don't lose them. I
just push them. Yeah, I know I understand. So,
so I have a Broadcom update for next week, VC models for the week after that, and then, depending on on our what we want to do, we could either talk about go to the edge or talk about nuclear.
Well, if we were, if we're going to talk about nuclear besides, kind of the two, the two kind of elephants in the room, you know, Wow, great stuff, as long as it ain't in my backyard. What? What more would you like? What paths would you like to see with regard to nuclear?
I think it's interesting to think through, if we resolve the, you know, the power, the power issues, what, how that would be disruptive from a tech perspective, right? I think there's an interesting so let's walk down the nuclear path. Since we're already there, I'll make, make that decision and go go deeper. I think so the first thing I would start with is we are definitely facing a power crisis from a right, even we're not going to make up the new consumption needs right, electric and data center for with with conservation on other systems, right, even Though I can in Maryland, which I think of as fairly progressive, they're having a big fight over a coal power plant where, you know, part of government, part of what they need to do is shut it down. And the like, they're fighting over keeping it in, you know, so there's a fight, and it's caused, it's actually driving up our power utilization because they keep, like, starting a shutdown process, not fixing it, like, it's like the limbo is making things really problematic. So we've got this triple issue of, we can't conserve our way out of it. We've got new load coming on and and the current load systems are actually, you know, are in too much Limbo to be to sort of meet demand. And so I feel like there's a coming, there's a lot of pressure coming into the system, from that perspective that they can't get met by by adding more wind and solar alone,
but that's a capacity issue. What about the emissions issues?
I think that. I don't think that we're going to solve I don't think we can solve capacity with high emissions sources. Is part of the Pro is part? Is another part of the problem. I don't maybe I'm missing, misunderstanding the question,
Well, is it how? How much pollution is being created by the operation of that mine? Pretty
significant because it's a coal plant.
So from a coal plant, from from that perspective, you know, if I look at market forces, there's the issue of capacity, the issue of demand for that capacity, which is continuing to increase, versus. Is a cost, and also on a multi variant analysis, would be the amount of emissions being produced by keeping that plant open to serve, to serve, the capacity need at a lower cost versus climate change and the impacts of climate change on not just the environment, but the people, the technology, the amount of jobs that are available, you know, like it's every aspect of life in that
respect, although I think historically, we've had trouble pricing that in so so from when I'm when I'm looking at it, as much as this is because We had the same I was having the same conversation internally about how much we want to sell power efficiency and sustainability as a factor for what we do right and like, it's just, it's just not a buy decision at the moment, as much as you want it to be. So part of when I look at this, I'm like, we've had so much trouble doing the right thing, decommissioning high emitting plants just because they're high emitting plants. The thanks, it's going to have to be something else. No. I mean, like we're building, you know, I'm back to weed, Maryland. They're looking at offshore power and doing all, you know, wind turbines and things like that. But those have been incredibly hard to get set up, and they you get, you know, environmental interestingly enough, or you get environmental stalls on these types of systems. And so I look at, you know this, we're getting to a breaking point where there's not going to be a simple answer, and because I don't think wind, wind or solar are going to be really adequate answers for this.
They're pretty clearly not if, I mean, just on its face, first of all, you've got the issue of they are not by themselves, a solution unless you have a really extensive distribution mechanism and you have a really good storage system, preferably both the problems, you know, with Solar pretty obvious. There's night time the problem with wind unpredictable,
we need buffer
so it causes two, two streams of thought. One is until such time as we can deliver predictable, more manageable power in a, you know, safer, more humane, long term future, you know, being the, you know, the the outcome there you're going to have to recommission, you may have to recommission stuff that is pretty, pretty ugly, It's dirty, it's it's not preferable, but it's tactical, and then you say, Fine, all good, unless and until it's a full solution with solar, with wind. And then I think that's when you naturally come to nuclear. And the nice thing about what's happening with nuclear is scale. I mean, I think we had that, that idea of, you know, you used to have a single power plant, and then you had conveyor belts going all over the place to with smaller and safe nuclear power. You can drop them where they're needed. They're 24 by seven. You're not as you're not held as much at bay by the distribution grid and storage. You know, battery storage, or whatever other kind of storage you can come up with is not an immediate issue. So, you know, it checks a lot of boxes. It
interestingly. I think, you know, if you start looking at EV charging and things like that, it's, you know, you start creating really significant incentives to have nighttime load. It's, you know, it's, it's well balanced with some of the consumption models that we're looking at. It's, it'd be interesting to me, like the data center covid. Residency makes a ton of sense, because you can literally do a power balance and say, I can produce this much power, and this is what my consumption is. I could almost see, and this is where the safety questions come in. I could see neighborhoods saying we have basically a captive power capacity within our, you know, town, you know, neighborhood, city limits. So I was, I'm playing with this idea of like, you know, you know, would an affluent neighborhood? How? How scary is nuclear? Can we overcome the not in my backyard, to be like part of my being an affluent neighborhood is, I have a, you know, a captive source of power.
It's a, it's, it becomes a local source of power, possibly even a hyper local source of power. And that may be, you know, if you, if you really want to appeal to somebody's paranoia, say, you know, everything else can go to hell. But in your gated community, you've got this little, you know, building over here that looks, looks about the size of an outhouse, and it's generating all of the, you know, all of the power for your gated community you're going to be in. You're going to be in good shape. All right, maybe I'll, you know, I'll, I'll consider
it flashes of of Neil Stevenson and
Yeah, exactly.
What about biking on the feeds? No crashes, no
crash. Yeah, yeah.
Every community is its own independent nation state, yeah,
right, exactly. Well, the point being, if they, you know, to the degree it has itself sufficient with respect to power, that's going to be a big deal. I So you asked the question, when? When does the the affluent side of the the community kind of embrace it if they're scared of something bigger or better,
and but the more safeguards that are put around it, the less, the more you can sort of push off the paranoia. Um, there's a particular kind of air, kind of like, think of a bubble that is being worked on that's supposed to go around these more portable nuclear power generators that in the event of the breach, they're like a containment, a container for containment, right, right? So that no, you know, no particulate gets in the air, and nothing can go past it. It's impermeable from both directions, outside and inside. But to your point, and not only in the gated communities, but I think, in communities where, and this is an idea that I've been floating around, do communities need their own data centers, and would that help solve some of the problem if you had hyper local data centers, right? If everybody's you, I mean, just browsing more than anything else.
I mean, what are you're you're hitting? What's
hitting? What is the advantage of a hyper local of a hyper local data center, Joanne, see your mind
speed. You You take away competition from the telecoms by creating a hyper local data center where everything is served to a radius of X number of miles and all the community members they're in, so that you're not constantly dealing with maintenance, repairs, outages, uptime, downtime, all of that because your you know, like your local data center, would have its own nap, would have its own security, would have its own everything Based on the the most common denominators what browsers do people use, what email services do people use? What are they actually doing the most of, and then particular kind of VPN, like capability for those that are work from home, that need access to, you know, secured networks in other locations. Could you build that into, like a little community? Like, as an example, this community where I live, when it all these houses were first built, I would say 70% of the owners of the homes worked in tech today. That number is almost 85% so. Oh, this whole community, we're talking about 1000 homes spread out over, you know, a larger geography. That's a high number. So would it make sense to put a hyper local data center with its own power generation and its own, you know, pops hops, whatever, whatever is required for it in this geography to service this community and sharing that cost over between vendors and residents, you have to figure the average number of people in a dwelling in this area is three to five. Okay,
you're making the capacity argument sizing, especially you. Yeah, you do. I mean, there are knock on effects, obviously, sure. What about the networking that has to go in between the data centers? Are you? You know, are you, do you have a national grid of data centers? Do? And what are the, what are the networking implications? Well, and it may turn out that you can, you can tear the traffic such that a lot of it between data centers is Not so time and latency specific or latency intensive, so that you can suffer a longer latency you can use, and thereby use satellites, as opposed to terrestrial means, there, you know, But it, it implies a different structure for the the national networks,
right, right? And so if they're busy, you know, like in this geography, because it's relatively new as a suburb, relative meaning, like, parts of it less than 10 parts of it less than 20 years old, depending on how you mix it, versus what was in existence 40 years ago. Power lines are very you know, it's 5g to the door. It's all, you know, it's all climate acclimatized, if you will, infrastructure and the reach to cell towers and to what would be other data centers could be done, even on existing buried infrastructure. So you could have over, let's say, a few square miles, more than two, probably likely 10. You could probably have three data centers and serve an entire population, then you satellite right because of the distance to the next community, or to downtown, to or whatever you mean.
What? What the The question I guess I would ask is, one of unintended consequences, just the way the electric power generation set up in Texas is now, right there are got an enormous there, there, yeah, there are quite a number of power generation units that are idle 90% of the time, maybe even more. But what? Because, what is, what they what they do is they fire them up and make them available under times of heavy stress, demand, because of demand based pricing, they can make plenty of money, more than enough to satisfy their their revenue targets, just supplying kind of the premium, you know, big pricing, the premium, the premium pricing, and the rest of time, The money that's gone into building them and investing them, you know, it's just sitting there idle. Do we have either the same or a similar kind of unintended consequence by by setting up data centers the way we you just described? It, I don't know.
Well the way, the way power is priced. Here we have peak time pricing, then regular time pricing, then peak time pricing, again, then surge pricing. So the peak goes from like, let's say three till eight, the surge goes from like five until seven. So everybody's coming home and making dinner, right? And then the rest of the time it's a regular pricing. So we already have that in place. We already have the digital meters. We already have those kinds of things. And people are used to it, because that's the way it's done here in another province. Ironically, there are certain provinces in the country where natural gas is not a thing. Everything is electric because you just can't get natural gas there at a reasonable price point. So like New Brunswick, Newfoundland, you know, the East Coast provinces where gas is not readily available, they're all electric. So their their pricing would go along with that and be lower to a certain extent. But they're also more advanced in things like heating systems. They'll use geothermal they'll use heat pumps. They'll use, you know, variety of different devices, many of which, by the way, are now digital and would also take you make use of those data centers. Because if it's a digitally connected device and the internet goes down. Good luck. Charlie Brown, unless it kicks over to cellular you're really dead in the water. Yeah.
Interesting thing to be able to design these systems with, you know, some some shared infrastructure, instead of it having to be completely dedicated infrastructure, right? Which they're which they're not. At the moment, it's funny. I, you know, we're going a little bit more towards the affluent. I there's a part of me that's wondering, from a bridge perspective, if you know Baltimore, Baltimore is a great example of a lot of stuff, but we have some really significant neighborhoods that need renewal and and you could, you you could set up a system in which there was a, you know, basically free power to fund the renovation of a neighborhood or a downtown corridor, right? We're talking about, you know, you're back to having to find locations for things. But, you know, having a, you know, being able to take a downtown corridor and basically say, you know, we're revitalizing this by making electricity free, you know, within
order and to your point of kind of shared infrastructure, if you if power and data and power and Compute, Storage Networking were as co located and CO dependent as what we're just describing. And it also makes an immense amount of sense that the infrastructure that supports them is well coordinated. So for sure, you don't get you don't just get you don't just get free or really cheap power. You get both power and digital, digital resources and
potentially heat in in offs. You know when, when off season, right? You've co generation, yeah, some of these things. I mean, the current systems are really not structured for small footprint data center infrastructure, but it doesn't, it seems like it could be, I guess, I guess, I've been having that conversation for a long time. After we're crossing the edge again? Well,
here, here's a, here's a, here's a question for you, even, and it has to do with power and data centers. There are, there are requirements. We don't have to look very far for data centers of a scale that are well beyond kind of the local and hyper local. How do they fit? How do you, how do you fit those into the into the equation, if I need you know, an Amazon east, an AWS east, to run, you know, to do training on on large language, on the next large language models. I mean, that's not something that's going to be done in on, in on a local scale, at least you. Not in the near term. We just that's that.
And actually, it is not even clear to me that that this, one of the data points I got back was that it's possible that training is, you know, because of the power generation, dedicated site powers, trainings, training is going to continue to be done, you know, at hyperscalers or in specialized infrastructure
and inference is going to be distributed more where it's needed
and won't have the same will have the same heavy footprint, but you know, could be that could be distributed a lot more into a local, local capacity.
But what about the advent of quantum then?
Oh, my God, I have no idea how to factor quantum into any of this.
Or do I? Yeah,
it's coming at the same rate as we're talking about capacity and emissions, and, you know, all of these things that need to be balanced for to to Rich's point, the very largest of data centers, as quantum comes up. How much is that going to shift that dynamic of the football size data center down to smaller, not a football size, not a football.
What's the power? What? It's funny, because there's a cryo liquids component for this that I want to chase also, but I have no idea what the footprint and the supporting infrastructure for a quantum data center would look like.
I have a document I'll pull up and I'll email you. Okay, I'd love, I'd love to something that I, yeah,
I mean, it's got to be pretty substantial. And so again, here's, here's yet another, another situation one could conceive of. You know, quantum computing infrastructure also being co resident with sources of power and at a scale that maybe even puts today's requirements for, you know, the big data centers to shame. And the question is, how long would it take to get there? What do you what kind of considerations do you have to put in place there?
Yeah, wow.
We've just, you know, I don't even know how to begin to pull on that thread and unravel it, but,
but I could see, go ahead. Joan,
sorry, I mean, for all intents and purposes, and this is a question, not not so much a comment. If you took the Amazon east, west, north and south, so to speak, into one large quantum center, wouldn't you be? Wouldn't that equate, I mean, it wouldn't be the same size as the data centers that are being used now for, you know, the hyperscalers. But I thought the whole one of aside from the the speed of computation and other factors of quantum that you could replace 10x by one. So if 10 data center, if 10 sets, I think
there's, I think that there's a, there's a at, you know, at a at a distance of, you know, low orbit satellite that might make sense. The question is, we still don't know enough about quantum computing to know what it's going to be good at, what it's not going to be good at, and what it what we can do with it. I mean, there's still, you know, there's still novelties, there's still, you know, let's put it this way, the advances in quantum computer, in quantum computing, is going to progress at the rate in which computer expertise today dies and leaves the field. This is something that's going to be meant for and and taken up by a very new set of of eyes, ears and brains. I don't I think we are also,
I Well, I think, I think we get in, we've got him, you know, we've been imprinted with, you know, you know, von Neumann, architectures, and, and, and you. And, you know, packet, you know, and packet switch networks, you know, I don't, I don't think any of us. I don't, I haven't yet to meet anybody that has even a, you know, kind of a fingernails grip on what you do with quantum other than cryptography, and that's about it.
Pure science,
maybe, yeah, again, don't know. What kind of time scales do we would we have to be looking at for, you know, kind of turning to the
nuclear. I actually think that if, if the designs are, oh boy, because you could, we could look at this from either end of the telescope, right? I mean, to meet climate change goals, we're, we're talking about plants are going to need to be operational in 10 years. Um, which is incredibly fast. I think, I think it could go even faster, which be a five year horizon. If you're looking at the data center footprint, trying right, if you have friendly regulatory, you have, you have data centers in remote locations, so that you're not dealing with urban concerns, or, you know, population density concerns. Then, when you have definite needs to take those, those data centers off grid, I think that becomes a pretty you could, you could move as fast as five years, if the if the tech on the nuclear side is is in line, right, I could see, I'll give you a concrete example, because there was one thing that when we talked about quantum because that's a that requires cryogenic fluids for this, it's interesting for me to think about, I'm thinking about SpaceX and their launch facility, where they're building a significant air separation plant recover, to recover nitrogen, oxygen and CO two. And you know, if they have a significant power problem on on site, because they don't, they don't have sufficient distribution lines to get power to that site. So they run a number of things on generators. I could, I could easily see, right them bringing in a, especially the way they think a small nuclear plant very, you know, very quickly. And you know that would be, that could be part of, you know that, but that type of thing, and I think that if you if you look at use cases where cryogenic liquids, or fluids are are, are valuable, right? Power, you know, rich, you had talked about desalination, right? But I could easily see, you know, you know, air separation as a, as a, as a background use for these, these plants, this power
among the, among the three biggies, in my mind, or desalinization, Capture. And I think of capture in a couple of ways, one being carbon capture for carbon reduction. But also, you know, the separation that you've you've just been talking about, it starts to speak to, okay, what are the other economic force? Forces that are likely to make or are likely to affect the decisions about where the investment goes first, where the where the build up happens. Obviously, there's a there's there's some real demand on the coasts, simply because, hey, that's where the salt water is. Yep, great. There's also some pretty dense populations. Again, there's where demand for power is. So you can see that what's going to drive it to get into kind of the heartlands, is it extraction? Is it, is it removal of, you know, dependence on petroleum? What is the water?
Yeah, probably right,
and it's water capture. It's, it's, it's probably water capture. Of a different sort. It's not desalinization, no, no, it's, it's
water water capture and water creation, yeah? Because if you look at the river systems, you know, I mean,
they're already depleted, yeah, right. And
the other thing is, and maybe this is just a level set or a clarification from, from my perspective, there are nuclear plants that are portable, right? There's a nuclear plant sitting in Alaska that, or the away from Alaska, the part that Russia claims ownership of, of the Arctic where there's no there's a giant barge sitting there with a nuclear plant on it, and it's been sitting there for the past three years. They brought it in, and it powers their facilities, their military base in the high Arctic that has more than 100,000 troops. Wow. And there this Birch is a portable nuclear reactor. Yeah, do I trust it because of where it was built? No, is it 1950s technology? Probably maybe, like, I'm just being, you know, smart ass. But, but generally speaking, if you can fit it on a barge and float it up a river or out to sea and bring it to a location, you could technically have one floating off shore with wind turbines, and you could also have one portable. Sitting in in the heartland regions where you have a tremendous amount of empty space, where they're not interested in wind turbines because of I either bird issues, environmental concerns, people issues, whatever noise for whatever the reason is. But you could definitely drop one in the middle of, I don't know, Iowa.
Well, this is where this decommissioning coal and coal plants, right? You know, because they already have the distribution infrastructure, yeah,
you would follow the coal plants. It's basically, it would be, it's, it's the nuclear transformation of of last generation, power Gen, or
power I could also see, see first peoples making uh, sovereign decisions about this as a, as a, as a way to have, you know, sustainable, uh, independence and wealth, yeah, because they could be, they could be, then selling that power. I know, I know there's been a, you know, huge challenge on any new capacity coming into the system from wind, in how you distribute, you know what your distribution pattern is, and so right, there's, there's significant challenges with this, but what we're talking about is, is CO residencies, where, you know, we have, you know, places that have low, you know, low regulatory capture, potentially being able to say, Okay, wait a second. We've got, you know, we can, we can create a power infrastructure. We can put a data center in here. We could put a air separation plant, right? All of a sudden, now we've got a significant, you know, value producer out of out of these systems.
Also keep in mind the fact that, in particular the areas we're just talking about, the geographies we're just talking about, the by far largest owner of land is the US federal government.
That's true right
now. That has got to mean something to what incentives, how you how you regulate, what the requirements would be for this. So I, you know, with a forward looking approach to it, I could see longer term government programs, the five and 10 year time horizons you just spoke of, Rob, I could, I could see some significant stuff happening on that, simply because the decision To use the land is in great measure, you know, who owns it, who runs it? Yeah, the neighbors, the nearbys, yeah, there'll be court cases. Question is, how do you how do you proceed?
Some of us ends up being alignment on environmental interests, right? Right,
exactly. Well,
there's another there's another factor too. And to both your points, there is, and I was just watching this the other day, and I'll have to dig up where I saw it. There is a significant amount of land near populated areas that used to be farm belt that is no longer available for farm for for food growth or use, because the Earth is so polluted. And they've recently found this, and it's been a two and a half or three year study, and there's like 25,000 locations in northeast of the US where farmland was infected by significant pollutants and can no longer be farmed, either because of industrialization or because of fertilizers and chemicals that were used for generations, and they the FDA has said you cannot grow anything on this land anymore, and farmers are literally between a rock and a hard place, no pun intended, simply because the fact that they own the land, They can't sell the land for any useful purpose, so it's sitting idle, and they're losing any of any ability to make a living. So there's a whole thing with agriculture that could easily be leveraged without necessarily 10 or 15 years or 20 years of regulatory issues, and you know, not in my backyard type stuff,
there are Superfund sites in the Bay Area, one of which that cannot be used for residential or business, or, going forward, business housing, which is the Ames, NASA, Ames and the and that whole airfield there, they've, they've dumped so much Bad crap into the into the ground there that, as a result of, you know, jet fuels and everything else can't be used here, therein lies similar kind of situation. Joanne,
yeah, absolutely. And that is,
and that is right in the heart of, you know, the Bay Area. And I think Alameda, Alameda Naval Air Station is also parts of it are in the same situation.
And I think there's parts of Pendleton that are the same as well, where it's completely why not use that land? It can't be used for anything else. So you've got locations that deal with disastrous situations that you don't necessarily. I'm not trying to take away from indigenous people or tribal lands, but I mean, that's a money maker for them, but you could literally situate these things on unusable land with little to no cost of land in a portable form. It doesn't have to be buried or, you know, foundations that would expose pollutants.
I think you're, you're on to it there. Absolutely
Take care. Thanks. Wow. One of the things I really love about the cloud 2030 discussions is how we intentionally poke towards the future. We take that 2030 frame and really make it intentional, where we look at regulatory capture and broader economic and environmental motivations for deep technical and technological changes that could be shaping our industry. This is one of those ones that has been tracking for me only recently, and yet I find that this is a really credible, potentially disruptive change that we need to be preparing for. That is what the cloud 2030 discussions are all about. Hope you enjoyed this one. If you have listened to this point, you're probably a regular listener, and we appreciate that. Consider joining us. Consider coming in and being part of the conversation. You can find out our schedule, our topics, and what we're what we're going to talk about, what we plan to talk about, at least at the 2030 dot cloud.
I'll see you there.
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