pranit <> angie1

    1:25AM Jul 16, 2024

    Speakers:

    Keywords:

    action

    pivot

    low income

    houses

    insulated

    hypothesize

    hypothesis

    energy

    salary

    theory

    sad

    government

    work

    canvassing

    marginal benefit

    gpa

    choose

    experiment

    connect

    clean energy

    The city didn't have effective policies for clean energy. So now they ended up like being the sole consultant when it comes to getting the clean energy supplies as well as making

    policies. So can we try to represent this as a state and action like when it pivoted? What do you think change?

    I see what choose was the move from more of an individualized approach to more of its attack, policy, approach or like at least the middle ground

    you know, so is it kind of more b2b, b2c to b2b,

    b2c to b2b, b2c or

    b2b to so they still work.

    So what happens is the city has some implementation plan, they help execute the implementation and based on that, they connect with the consumers the how they do that is through the energy companies. So like, like Eversource National Grid, right? So they'll connect with the or like, the smaller companies or like for performance contractors, and so basically, like, if your house is not insulated, you will have to pay a lot more in energy bills, to pay more for heating to pay more for cooling, right but if your house is insulated, it's a it's higher upfront costs. But on the long run, you're gonna pay a lot less right now, most, most citizens do a lot and so what happens is, they help them okay. You know, you pay like 100 bucks, the rest is subsidized by the government, and you can go out and get you get to work with this contractor. So, we help the contractor, get the customer as well as get the money from the company. So, theoretically, everyone's happy. If everything goes up sometimes it doesn't. But

    sorry. So b2b to see here the first P is governments, the Massachusett and B is the all in energy.

    The other B is I would say,

    contractors or energy companies.

    And then from that to their consumers, so it's kind of a platform you're providing that connects all this Yes. So instead of being like previously, you are this just one be in b2b b2c, but now you're providing a platform? Yeah.

    So we get the data off the customers and we get the info about the government's. Now this was while I was there. After I have left, they've started this thing called CFP, which is called a community first partnership. I'm not entirely fully sure about that. But I think that's like a new offering, which is

    they'll do canvassing for the government's canvassing,

    like business Canvas.

    So like

    there'll be representatives of the city government, and go to events and you know, help people be aware about the programs, even if they don't, and now it's not just eventually the focus was just on low income. But now they've moved to like income households

    as well. Is it expansion or like the changing? I would say

    expansion expansion, got it because they're still they still retain the original like low income,

    right? Yeah. Because pivoting somehow assumes because of the constraint, you're changing the hypothesis, but expansion, it's not changing,

    right? Because they realize, you know, like, even if you have a little bit of income disposable, you want a better product, right? So if your home is better insulated, and you get a solar panel on top, yeah. It's a win.

    So like one challenge is, um, so there are a lot of research about framing and printers and scientists who keep doing the experiment to support the theory and Octillery theory and what I mean by auxiliary theory, let's say, you want to argue that the more talented you are during young age, you earn more when you become older, for instance, yes. And this is a theory that you want to prove and auxilary theory would be all for the measurement of the young talent. So I will say GPA score, right? And we'll be the proxy approximation for the older like salary. Or like the art and more like that can be different metrics right? So one will say just set salary that excludes all those talk in comics, but your pure salary because, yeah, so here, if I argue and do some statistical testing based on the true data collected from that correlates, GPA, model GPOs course, let's call it their G. And this salaries s. So s equals like beta one Oh, G. So beta one inputs has a two star and a successful happening then you can argue that mine theory is supported. But what entrepreneurs kind of what when they do experiment, you can see similar things. So for all energy, you started for the L LED? Yeah. Yeah. So their theory might have been, there would be the low income people would require this change of LED and the cost that can save is more than like, yeah, the desirability hypothesis is out there. Right. And, like just research has been connecting how they strategically learn, like which market they choose. So there are two ways or when the right two questions that people can ask when they see some gap between what they predicted and what they observed. So in this all energy case, let's say I predicted that if I go for 100 sale my conversation with the low income people for like 40% of them would convert, like, yeah, so it's doing Yeah, that was my assumption. Yeah, in fact, only one person converted, okay, then they need to somehow pivot because this is not sustainable. But that they can pivot either led this product, the idea they're selling or they can pivot to from low income to higher income, middle income, because perhaps, the level of consumption they want for certain lighting is not enough for the low income. So, so there are two sides, market side and the product side. So, this carries on to the scientists as experiment because in the previous case of younger talent, affects the older earnings, then we can if we somehow, like hypothesize this, and what we observed is contrary to our hypothesis, so like the data that we observe, the people the higher the GPA is, the lower the income is, that's kind of against what we hypothesize. So then we can change either the original theory, okay, which is the talent and the earning or we can change the measurements. Maybe GPA is not a good score to have managers, but tell them I can change to like, I don't know LSAT score. Yeah. So there are different ways to reject different levels of hypothesis. And I think I want you to connect that with startup tivity. Yeah. And I wonder whether that happens, like

    in social entrepreneurship as well.

    I'm very much Angel and maybe that's the point where most social enterprises is because their primary hypothesis has always been this, for example. There was this like, company back home right? There. It was, they were actually at MIT solve, so maybe they're good. They're not the best example for this. case, because they're sort of succeeding. But basically what they did was they made like, houses. So traditionally, back home houses are made of bricks and like stone and so they came up with this idea to make it out of the prefabricated work. started

    building it in like

    a day, five days, compared to months.

    Reason why because we have a break. We have a lot of things

    and so in order to prevent them, like rebuild

    rebuild very quickly. They came up with that idea, which is great.

    Now I'm thinking,

    you know, they succeeded, because there's a demand, houses are falling, or collapsing. People will pay and governments paid, you know, because they're like, We don't want people to just but this scenario here is if the the reason why they might not succeed, is at some point, it becomes saturated. There's not enough houses to build. So what are you going to do with it? Right. And so maybe their primary because they're in social enterprises are like in fact renters.

    There's not a concept of exit right? Usually,

    is you you stick a lot in like if you if you stick to one motive you do

    you have to do that forever. Yeah, for whole life.

    Definitely, the more the more successful, this is a very sad thing. Because most successful NGOs or licensure ventures are the ones that work on the issues that can never be solved.

    Like, like for instance,

    for instance, IRC

    International Rescue, work and

    why can an ideal world this should not exist? Because there would be no refugees. There will be no war. But is that ever going to happen realistically?

    I heard that like the you know, the chapel or the cathedral in Spain. Yeah, that keeps constructing them that they never finally finish it. Yeah, I heard like, someone was saying, hypothesizing that the fact the legend that they never stopped constructing increases the tourist and flow. Yeah, but that's somehow lengthening the construction more,

    I think

    have some elements that they will never finish. So yeah, is like you know, the Sustainable Development Goals, right. The top ones you are never going to achieve. Like it's sad. I would say zero poverty.

    That's a rough like, I wish that was true.

    That's very hard.

    Well, why do you think that sad? What is? I mean, this is

    like a altruistic standpoint. So like, yeah, definitely, I wouldn't want that. I want no poverty. But is that realistically possible? I mean, I guess a lot sad but like, you know, it's very light, paradoxical, so to speak. The issues that are the most terrible are the most perpetual issues are the ones you are if you focus on them, the chances are you will succeed.

    So vision does not need to be met always right. Like Elon Musk deciding to go to Mars. Maybe they can pivot at some point, but right right. Some times it's better to make your like cool, more grander to. Yeah, the harder the problem. That you're solving, the more energy that you're extricating from the excited members, right? Yeah, yeah. I don't think that's you. I know what you mean.

    Very Yeah. very grand.

    Maybe next week, same time. Working can do we can see his work better for you say I have a tennis

    on Mondays I have soccer but what others

    are extra component wise there are actions taken and utility and environment and a probabilistic perception so that also you need to learn like may Yeah, your point 1% Your employee developing our ground breaking, that is also 0.1%. So what do you need to learn? That's your kind of perceive workspace. And you need to optimize that you need to compare different options or you may like another action set, maybe you need to hire two person because so two person would have more synergy. As your appoint one person can rise up to 10%. Then, through this experiment of hiring one person, you would know that Oh, like two was actually an optimal action device. Oh, yeah, but the thing is, you cannot experiment forever. You cannot do 234 questions, you're going bankrupt. So like, like this, do this brain exercise to all energy like choose what is the state that you cannot control and what is the action Okay, and what is the environment of this like organization that is affected by how many people they are in hire, to execute and all the water the partnership they can choose among this? Yeah. And what is the probability of when you choose this partnership like CDO, Boston, and the action would be whether you're going to do LED or or whether you're going to address the low problems, low income or high income, just start from a very simple motto have one action set and one. And, yeah, then you can Yeah. You can do it. So I think social entrepreneur, the most challenging thing is use parts very hard to define yourself. But I'm pushing you through that. That's what you want. Performance.

    If I lay that out, altruistic guy who I like, as long as

    he's happy, I know, but you still have some performance measure or how many people trans? Like converted, right? Yeah. So just tying back to the COVID example, what we had was we had an econ model that calculated GDP, and we had the hospital and the people who work had contracted or COVID. But yes, yes. So what the research question was, if the action of delivering vaccine a little earlier, how much marginal benefit it could bring to the society? Yeah. And marginal benefit is we have a basic,

    one more. Yeah.

    Yeah. So for instance, let's say one day earlier, that would lower the number of people who die and we have some one person cost, fastest possible someone and we could have lower the hospitalization but like GDP, we need to distract it because one day earlier would need some money to deliver faster. So overall, maybe we would have like 10% More increase then. Yeah, so that's kind of the end state of utility. And so you can imagine how we as we change the the day it was delivered, then the money that they earned would go somehow decrease, right? Like assumption is the later the vaccine was delivered, then somehow it would drop the money they earn, the profit would grow to something like that. You need to have action and the utilities define. Alright.

    You got this. Got this, you know, yeah.