Dead Cat Conversation with Rick Heitzmann

Eric Newcomer48min

Speaker 1

00:05

Welcome

Eric Newcomer

00:13

everybody, we're here with cat is Eric newcomer. I'm here with Tom and Katie. And we've got Rick heights, who is in FirstMark. Capital, we were talking about the markets. I was like, Oh, can you just come on the podcast? And actually tell everybody this? Because I feel like, yeah, you know, I tried to, for the newsletter, you know, accumulate a bunch of views from smart venture capitalists about what, you know, the public markets mean for the private markets, because they're not always sort of one to one. And Rick is one of my go twos and sort of translating, I think, you know, talks to smart people in the public markets. Anyway, Rick, thanks. Thanks for being here. Hey, thanks for having me out. This is awesome. longtime listener. So excited to be part of it and excited to be on beyond the record for

Eric Newcomer

01:00

Yeah, I mean, what is your high level takeaway? Or I mean, do you think this is, I mean, this is the hardest prediction to make. But I mean, you think this will stick? I mean, I think a lot of people we saw, you know, march 2020, where it seemed like that, that was the end of the world. And then everything rebound, saw

Tom Dotan

01:15

somebody tweeting out that Bill Gurley has correctly predicted five of the last two recessions. So there's certainly no shame in insider trading a bad period. But, uh, what's your what's your honest take?

Rick Heitzmann

01:27

Yeah, I think Bill Gurley I, yeah, I can make I'm not gonna make predictions about grilling, but I will make slightly more difficult predictions about the market, I think we've entered into a new normal, I, I'm not going to call the bottom. Because I think that's hard to do. And there's too many things at work here. But I think we've entered into a new period where capital is not free. And it's going to be more and more expensive, even as the tenure is kind of popping up. Over 3%. People are saying, oh, you know, this is, this is an unfathomable, and we're still at historic levels. So you're gonna see dollars kind of trickle out in a macro sense out of risk categories out of the liquids, and into more liquid, you know, fixed income, where they've been before. And that's just going to recalibrate the supply and demand for venture capital, and therefore make venture capital more expensive and more competitive for everyone. Could Could

Tom Dotan

02:22

we maybe back up for a second here and just maybe set up for listeners, like from a macro economic standpoint, or, you know, a financial industry standpoint? What were the parameters and environment that kind of led towards the last 10? However, many years of venture capital investments, I mean, like, what exactly were we working under that allow for so much venture capital to enter the industry, and when you say is, you know, cheap money.

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